What are the odds of an early election being called?

Whatever fairy tales or spin doctoring the politicians may dish out to the public as they accuse each other of being undemocratic or unconstitutional, there is still the probability that an early election might be called.
For one thing, the government will need to pay for the $1.75 million negotiated settlement for Toa Petroleum reputedly to be paid by March 2010 and that will require a supplementary appropriation by Parliament.
If so, the Prime Minister will need to call Parliament to pass the supplementary budget in order to fulfill their obligations. However, as admitted by the PM at the media conference on Tuesday morning, he and his Cabinet are likely to face a no confidence motion.
When approached, a spokesman for the OPM said the possibility of an early election in the event of a successful no confidence motion had no basis and was news to him. How could there be no basis when Parliament may need to be convened to pay for Toagate by means of a supplementary budget. If so, the Demos and Opposition have said they will use that opportunity to pass a no confidence motion in the PM and his Cabinet.
The spokesman defended the PM and Cabinet actions because as yet they have not had access to the settlement documents and therefore have no knowledge of the March deadline, if any.
The spokesman conceded there was the possibility of a no confidence motion in the House against the PM and his Cabinet but the PM has already stated he is unlikely to call Parliament any time soon except for budget purposes. Instead the PM and Cabinet would concentrate on providing stable government for the people of the Cook Islands including pressing ahead with political reform.
What about the Westminster maxim that the PM is supposed to be the person who can command the confidence of the majority of Parliament? The spokesman said the matter could only be determined in the House.
Takuvaine candidate Mark Brown said the Opposition position is quite clear. “The party has the say and the control, but who is the party? Is a faction of four Members of Parliament and the Prime Minister? The Opposition would support of no confidence motion in the PM and his Cabinet and for a caretaker government and the elections to be called.”
Brown said they have legal advice that under the electoral amendment, it will be the PM and his Cabinet who will be considered to have failed to have crossed the floor.
Only the future will tell, but the Electoral Amendment says: “The seat of a member, other than a member elected as independent, shall become vacant if (a) upon a vote in Parliament on an issue of confidence, the member fails to support the majority of the Parliamentary members of the political party for which the member was elected.”

Herald Issue 463 10 June
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- Budget will decide if residents prosecute Government over landfill
- Forestry project sucking Mangaia dry
- Budget 2010 – fiasco or disaster?