Welcome to the Cook Islands Herald

HERALD WEEKLY ISSUE 428 : 08 October 2008

Climate change - No longer just a theory

Climate change is now a universally accepted scientific, soul stirring and frightening fact. Supportive evidence is overwhelming. Recent hurricanes which have smashed their way through the Caribbean and the southern parts of the US continent and south eastern parts of Asia confirm, as predicted by meteorologists, that hurricanes are now setting new benchmarks of severity. Luckily for us Tropical Cyclone Percy and Olaf – each rated category 5- slid past us early last year but left enough damage for us to gauge what might have happened had either hit us dead on.
It is a fact that the Arctic Region as a whole has risen in average temperatures by 4 degrees Celsius over recent decades. It is a fact that tons and tons of huge ice blocks are breaking off into the sea directly resulting in an alarming shrinkage of the ice continents of the Arctic and the Antarctic. It is a fact that a huge deposit of methane gas lies buried under the Arctic seabed of a volume estimated to match the entire emissions from the rest of the world’s oceans and greater than the total amount of carbon locked up in global coal reserves. This store of methane has remained contained because of freezing waters.
It is also a fact that as a result of the warming of waters there are now “hot spots” of methane emissions in the Arctic (International Siberian Shelf Study 2008). This phenomenon is creating worldwide attention. In 2007 scientists recorded an increase in global methane and are set to measure a further increase this year.
The good news about methane is that it is quickly degraded in the environment having an average lifetime of about twelve years, compared to a hundred years for carbon dioxide.
The bad news is no one understands how the methane stores in the north will behave when thawing increases extensively. The general concern is that the amounts released, being so huge, are most likely to make global warming happen faster and with much worse effect.
It is, therefore, heartening to see the Pacific Forum Leaders address this subject at the Niue forum in serious tones. The Forum Communiqué at paragraph 10 stated: “[The] Leaders emphasised the great seriousness with which they regard the growing threat posed by climate change to the economic, social, cultural and environmental well-being and security of Forum members, particularly the Forum Island countries.”
Out of this “seriousness” emerged the Niue Declaration on Climate Change which in essence:
Committed the Forum members to continue to develop Pacific-tailored approaches to combating climate change viscitudes.
Urged Forum members to proclaim the urgency of the problem in all international fora.
Requested SPREP to continue to meet the individual needs of its member countries through climate orientated activities and in co-operation with relevant international agencies.
Encouraged Pacific Development Partners to increase their technical and financial support for climate change action on adaptation and mitigation.
Urged development partners to support efforts to move towards alternative and renewable energy.
Called on international partners to take effective steps towards the reduction of greenhouse gases.
Agreed that such are the climate change challenges, adaptation is a critical response for Pacific governments and requires urgent support from regional agencies and development partners alike.
All this seriousness is very welcome. For far too long environmentalism has been regarded as the wasteful pastime of the deranged. It is in fact at the heart of how we live, fusing with economics to create a new paradigm. Perhaps, contrary to good advise we should spend like there is no tomorrow, because in the profoundest sense there will be no tomorrow if we don’t get the balance right. As was pointed out in the “Bali Road map” we have about 100 months left!! If global greenhouse gas emissions have not begun to decline by 2015, the Earth and all who live on it are in serious trouble.
On the other hand according to the inestimable wisdom of the long gone Mayans Mother Nature is moving according to a predetermined planetary clock. From the last global deluge to the calendar year end of 2012, 1200 years would have elapsed. At that point in time Earth will leave the age of Capricorn and enter the age of Aquarius whereupon a massive global cataclysm will hit the whole world at the same time including a global deluge that will destroy all but a fraction of what we know, what we have built, what we have seen, heard and smelled. Mother Earth will survive and eventually life will begin anew as has, so the Mayans said, happened during the last 1200 years.
The Mayans predicted that this will happen on December 24, 2012. (Footprints of the Gods). If they are right we don’t have much time left, do we?