Dazed and confused by Cook Islands politics
The ordinary citizen can be forgiven if dazed and confused by the current political situation with its rumours about who is talking to whom, possible coalitions, possible defections and expulsions.

At the start, there were three main groupings in the political game-the Demos and Demo MPs led by Sir Terepai, the CIP and the Cabinet under the PM.
To this game now comes a new team. Those Demos who see a conference as a means to bring some order to the current set up. This is the Action group led by the Demo’s Assistant President Sean Willis.
These are the four main players on the political scene. The others, smaller parties like Te Kura O Te Au, the Progressive Party and the Cook Islands United group are yet to make a significant impact.
The elect ion is due this year and the ordinary citizen just wants it over and done with so hopefully some clarity will be restored to the political scene.
However, considering the backroom deals, horse trading and negotiations in this lead up period to the election, whether the election delivers any clarity is questionable.
The future make up of the next government and parliament may well depend on the outcome of the meeting on 31 May 2010 called by the Democratic Party Action group, a meeting which is not sanctioned by the Democratic Party Central Executive which backs Sir Terepai.
It is doubtful if the proposed injunction to be issued by the Central Executive will be able to prevent the Action group from using the name “Democratic Party.”
The four factions currently aligned or previously aligned to the Demo Party are;
Faction one: Expelled members PM Jim Marurai and Cabinet Minister Wilkie Rasmussen who both received formal letters from the Demo President Makiuti Tongia expelling them from the party under section 8 of the Demo Party Constitution.
Faction two: The four current Cabinet Ministers, Wigmore, Heather, Piho, Eggelton who still consider themselves to be Demo Party members but who the Executive say are no longer in the Party. They did not receive formal letters expelling them but were considered by the Central Executive to have forfeited their membership when they failed to resign their Ministerial posts and return to the party by a specified date.
Faction three: The Action group lead by Demo Party Assistant President Sean Willis which plans to hold a conference on 31 May to resolve the party member’s differences and to elect a new Central Executive.
Faction four: The current Demo Central Executive which includes sitting Demo MPs and which supports Sir Terepai Maoate as Party leader. This Faction prefers the conference be held after the election and believes the Action group (Faction three) is in the process of forming a new political party.
If Factions one and two team up at the election, they only need to win five seats to hold the balance of power and if with others roped in, can win ten seats, then the other parties will have to approach them and negotiate.
No wonder then that Faction four is seeking to get sufficient numbers behind it.
It is known that Faction four of the Demos has been in discussions with the PM (Faction one) using John Tangi (Demo Party General Secretary) as the go between. In May alone it is understood Tangi paid four visits to the PM’s Office.
Sir Terepai (Faction four) has also been seen entering the office of the Cook Islands Party (CIP) Opposition. This is not unusual as Faction four through go between John Tangi, is known to have had contact and been in negotiations with the CIP since January 2010 to establish a new Cabinet. Back then an offer was put to the CIP by Faction four that Sir Terepai be Prime Minister with the CIP to get the Finance portfolio and Deputy Prime Minister positions. The Demo caucus members and central executives supported the offer. These negotiations were aimed at removing the minority government led by Marurai and began before Faction three arose.
Four weeks ago Demo President Makiuti and the CIP were considering a deal which included the position of Auckland Consul General as the pay off.
The agenda for the conference on 31 May includes the election of a new Central Executive and Leader of the Democratic Party.
Once elected, the new Central Executive may move to re-admit Faction one (the PM and Rasmussen) back into the Party. Faction two will be considered to have been Demo members all along making Wigmore then eligible to be nominated and elected Leader of the Party. There may also be a move to further unify the Party by extending the olive branch to Faction four (Sir Terepai’s group).
It is possible Faction four under Sir Terepai may opt instead to form a new Party to contest the election.
When will the PM name the election date?
The Times believes the PM may not name the date until well after the Budget has been tabled in Parliament. The Budget may be tabled before 1 July. The Times predicts the Budget will be tabled, but will not be passed nor debated. The House will be adjourned. The PM will continue through to the end of the term, 26 September, operating on one twelfth of the previous year’s Budget as allowed under the Constitution then he will name the date for the election.
Come the election late in the year, it’s predicted the PM will win his seat in Mangaia but will not seek the Prime Ministership nor a Ministerial position. For Marurai who has been PM for six years, it fulfills his vision that no PM should serve more than two terms.
The Times believes because the PM is not interested in returning to the top job, he is not under any pressure to call an early election.

Headlines : Times 290 02 March 2009
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