All eyes on the Speaker next week

With parliament to assemble next Thursday 29 July 2010, it presents an opportunity for the Maoate faction and the CIP opposition to attempt something. Exactly what is not known at this stage.
What may happen could be an attempt to suspend Standing Orders followed by an attempt to dissolve parliament and call the election early. Any motion to suspend Standing Orders would require the approval of the Speaker.
To win any vote to suspend Standing Orders, the Maoate faction would have to boycott parliament, as they cannot vote against the government, to give the opposition the numbers to win the vote.
The attempt, if any is to be made, will probably follow the tabling of the Budget and the presentation of the Financial Statement by the Finance Minister.
Attention therefore now focuses on the Speaker and what he is likely to do. There may even be a move to have the Speaker approach the Queen’s Representative to dissolve parliament.
Some parliamentary staff are predicting fireworks but on Friday not Thursday. The word is, “All hell is going to break loose.”
The Times understands that once the Order Paper is set with the order of business for the day, the House proceeds accordingly.
The Budget will be tabled and the Finance Minister will read his Financial Statement.
Will the Budget go through the required three readings to be passed? 10 days are allowed for debate. Unlikely.
What is likely to happen is after the Financial Statement is read, the Budget will not be passed. It will lie on the table and parliament could be adjourned.
Government may then continue on three twelfths of the previous Budget up to the date of the Election possibly late November.
One thing is certain, neither the Maoate faction nor the opposition would attempt to change the government so close to an election. To do so would be political suicide as to do so would only anger a general public already fed up with excesses of MPs. There would be a backlash at the ballot box.
MPs would only be demonstrating their love for “power” over and above any “concern” for the people. It would be a gross demonstration of selfishness and self interest.
The only objective can be to go for an early election. If parliament is dissolved next week, the election must be held within 90 days. The general public would probably welcome an early election.
Lastly, it is important to remember anything could happen after all this is the Cook Islands.

By Charles Pitt

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