Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Below average numbers likely, but increased activity in the late season near North Queensland and French Polynesia.

New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and New Zealand MetService have issued a tropical cyclone outlook on behalf of collaborating organisations from the southwest Pacific, including Australia, the USA, the Pacific Island National Meteorological Services, French Polynesia, and New Caledonia.
Climate and weather forecasting organisations across the Pacific are predicting below average tropical cyclone occurrence for the 2011 – 12 season. On average, nine named tropical cyclones occur in the southwest Pacific (between 135°E and 120°W) each season (November – April). The forecast indicates that 5 – 8 named cyclones are expected for the November 2011 – April 2012 season. Activity is expected to be below normal to the west of the Dateline, except near North Queensland where near normal or slightly above activity may occur. During the second half of the season, higher than normal activity is also likely to the east of the Dateline near the Society Islands and Austral Islands.
Most countries west of the International Date Line, including Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and New Zealand (from ex–tropical cyclones) are likely to experience close to normal or lower than normal activity because of the style of La Niña that is currently developing. It should be recognised that the expectation of activity (and associated risk) ascribed for each island group is subjective, but expectations are that increased activity to the east of the Dateline is likely as the season progresses. Note that the forecast of normal or below normal activity for islands like New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga indicates two or three tropical cyclones can still be expected. In addition, most of the tropics and sub–tropics can be severely affected by at least one tropical cyclone during the season, and as such all nations should remain vigilant.
Outlook in more detail
La Niña conditions are currently re-developing in the region. Sea surface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean are becoming more negative in recent weeks. More frequent high pressure anomalies have developed over French Polynesia (continuing from earlier in the year) with lower pressures over eastern Australia for the lead-in to Austral spring. The expectation is that below normal tropical cyclone (TC) activity is likely for most islands west of the International Date Line in the southwest Pacific during the November – April season, with normal or slightly elevated activity near the Gulf of Carpentaria and North Queensland, particularly late in the season. Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near normal to the east of the International Date Line. Although reduced activity west of the International Date Line is likely, all communities should remain alert and prepared.
TC activity is expected to be below average with 5 – 8 named TCs expected over the November 2011 – April 2012 period for the southwest Pacific. On average, nine tropical cyclones occur each year for the southwest Pacific region. Southwest Pacific TCs are grouped into classes ranging from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most dangerous. For the coming season, at least one cyclone is forecast to reach at least Category 3, with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots or 118 km/h and one system may reach at least Category 4 strength, with mean wind speeds of at least 86 knots or 159 km/h.
Each year, tropical cyclones have a significant impact on the southwest Pacific. Places like Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest activity in the region, with an average of about 3 or 4 TCs passing close to those countries each year. Projections show near normal to slightly increased tropical cyclone activity for the 2011–12 season over North Queensland, but lower than normal activity for most other regions to the west of the Dateline. New Zealand usually experiences more frequent ex-tropical cyclone interactions during La Niñas; however in only half of the past years selected as being similar to this season did an ex-tropical cyclone come close to the country. While TC activity is generally reduced for islands to the east of the International Date Line during La Niñas, historical cyclone tracks indicate that TCs can affect parts of southwest French Polynesia, including the Society and Austral Islands, and the southern Cook Islands during La Niñas, especially late in the season. The Austral Islands and Society Islands are likely to experience slightly increased activity this year, particularly during the latter half of the TC season. All islands should remain vigilant as the current La Niña continues to evolve with progression into Austral summer. During moderate La Niñas with a strong atmospheric component (strong SOI) but slightly weaker equatorial SST anomalies(see explanation of analogue selection below), ex-tropical cyclones are known for transitioning into the mid-latitudes within ±15° of the Dateline and they typically have a strong southeasterly or southerly slant to their trajectory.

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