Sir Geoffrey in the driver’s seat
Expect political uncertainties to clear on Monday

Norman - Still needed?	Wilkie - Is there a place for him?	Jim - Back to the agreement?

The CIP is confident that after a raft of Executive and Caucus meetings scheduled for this weekend, on Monday, its clear majority to govern will be confirmed.
Come Monday, it’s expected Kiriau Terepu will be sworn in as the member for Matavera, the Appropriation Bill (Budget) will be passed then what happens next is anyone’s guess.
The final make up of the House is only speculation at this stage but a number of scenarios present themselves.
Scenario 1: With Turepu winning Matavera for the CIP, the party now has 13 seats on its team (the others have 11) and that is without Wilkie Rasmussen. There is no need then to reactivate the” motion of no confidence” given that Teina Bishop will not support such a vote against his pal the PM Hon Jim Marurai. However, it does leave the way open for Independent Norman George to possibly negotiate a comfy deal for himself. DPM or a Cabinet post?
Scenario 2: If Rasmussen joins Bishop back at the CIP, the party has the luxury of a 14 seat majority. It would also put the CIP in the position where it would not need to enter into any possible deal with Norman George. Norman could remain as Speaker but a Cabinet post or DPM position would be unlikely. Rasmussen could try and negotiate a Cabinet post but in this scenario, Sir Geoffrey has the upper hand. Rasmussen would require the support of a CIP MP possibly Bishop.
Scenario 3: If Bishop’s pal PM Hon Jim Marurai were to reactivate his earlier agreement on power sharing with Sir Geoffrey, and join Bishop at the CIP, then the CIP would have the luxury of not needing Rasmussen and leaving Norman as Speaker. The CIP would have a majority of 14 seats, if Norman is included. Marurai would become DPM under the power sharing agreement.
When all is boiled down, Sir Geoffrey has two choices. His safest choice is to stick to scenario 1 however Norman is the wild card. If Marurai approaches Sir Geoffrey to propose scenario 3, then that is the most likely scenario to go with. Firstly, Marurai saves “face” by honouring an earlier agreement which he broke and secondly it gives Sir Geoffrey the luxury of not having to do a deal with either Rasmussen or Norman George.
As to the likely make up of the six member CIP Cabinet, assured four of those places are: Sir Geoffrey, Tom Marsters, Tupou Faireka and Tiki Matapo. Fifth and sixth places will depend on how the scenarios play out. Possibilities are Jim Marurai, Wilkie Rasmussen and Norman George. Outside shots are Henry Puna and Teariki Heather.
In any case, what is certain about Cook Islands politics, is that nothing is certain.

- Charles Pitt

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