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CI Times Weekly | Current Issue 264 | 18 August 2008

Monthly economic updates welcomed

In its first economic update since the Budget session, government reports its two main indicators used to determine short term economic performance, VAT and visitor numbers, continue to show that underlying growth in the economy remains robust.
Government’s economic updates are required to be issued by law, half yearly at the end of June and the end of December. However, government has decided to provide more regular updates, at least monthly, beginning with an updated version of the economic update issued in June with the Budget document.
The updates will continue to identify all indicators of economic activity and in doing so identify the trends that may impact on future growth going forward.
This move is welcomed by the Times as given the pace of international developments, regular updates are preferred over six monthly updates and the quarterly reports issued by the Government Statistician.
An ongoing concern for local businesses is that the official statistics are sometimes incomplete or not up to date. Up to date reports also need to be on government’s website in a timely manner.
Value Added Tax (VAT)
Receipts have experienced reasonable growth. Receipts for the full 2007/2008 year (to June 2008) show a 1.4% increase ($0.5 million) over the Supplementary Budget Estimate and a 5.2% increase over the 2006/2007 result.
Visitor numbers
The number dropped slightly when compared to the previous year. Total visitor arrival figures for 2007/2008 were predicted to show an increase of just 1% over 2006/2007 however, the latest figures suggest the opposite had in fact occurred. Total visitor arrival figures for 2007/2008 financial year (to June 2008) was down 0.9% on 2006/2007 figures. Figures for arrivals from NZ and Tahiti grew while figures for other major markets decreased. NZ accounted for 64% of the visitors. In the 2007/2008 financial year, the weakest months were April and June 2008. Total visitor arrivals in April were down 6.9% on the previous April and the numbers for June were down 10.9% on last year.
Comment
Further more detailed reports will follow over the next few issues as space allows. Initial views are;
-Monthly updates welcomed.
-Noted that some key data not available.
-Some comments relating to the sectors are hard to follow and it may be better not to comment at all or seek outside expert comment. By way of example is the comment on the northern fishing fleet being an attractive commercial proposition. A better long term commercial proposition would be to stop supplying canneries in Pago (they don’t pay much per kilo) with Albacore and look to supply the American market direct with frozen tuna using Penrhyn as a base.

Headlines : Times 264 18 August 2008
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- Separate agency to handle nodules revenues?
- Water shortages drive residents to meeting
- New political party to stand for social justice
- PPA Trade Exhibition attracts high calibre companies