Where election will be decided
By Charles Pitt,
Political Editor

IF THE Democratic Party is to form the government after Tuesday’s general elections, it needs to win back its traditional strongholds of Ruaau and Titikaveka. Winning these “trend setting” seats is viewed as critical by the Demos.
Just a few days from the vote and both political parties were confident they will form the next government.
On Tuesday at Cook Islands Party (CIP) headquarters, officials said they were confident the CIP would win 14 seats. They aim to retain their eight Rarotonga seats and capture six outer islands seats. CIP Deputy leader Tupou Faireka said he was confident CIP would win between 14 and 16 seats.
For the Demos, a spokesperson said they aim to retain all their nine outer islands seats and capture several seats on Rarotonga, especially those traditionally Demo seats of Ruaau and Titikaveka now led by the CIP.
MARGINAL SEATS
There are some seats which on past elections results would be considered “marginal” or critical. These are in the main outer islands seats where the smaller population makes for very close calls.
It is the outcome in these seats which may decide who forms the next government. A
ccording to the Demos, all outer islands seats are “vulnerable” as most are held by slim majorities. It only takes one family to vote the other way to affect the outcome.
Significantly, unlike the past two elections, this one is down to a scrap between two parties, without the larger numbers of Independent candidates. Things are a lot less complicated this time round.
Looking back at which were the marginal seats in 1999 and 2004, we deal only with the election results and not the aftermath of legal wrangling and the seats lost as a result.
In 1999, The Demos won 11 seats, CIP 10 and the New Alliance Party (NAP) won 4 seats. The NAP contested 20 of the then 25 seats.
The NAP was a force to be reckoned with. It split the vote in 10 seats, affecting the outcome. The marginal seats with the majority figures in brackets, were; Titikaveka (19), Murienua (3), Vaipae-Tautu (6) (Aitutaki), Oneroa (4) (Mangaia), Ivirua (7) (Mangaia), Penrhyn (4), Pukapuka (1),
2004 TRENDS
In 2004, three parties contested the election, the Demos, CIP and the Tumu Enua Party.
There were eight Independents.
The final result was Demos - 14, CIP - 9, Tumu Enua - 0, and one Independent Piho Rua, won Rakahanga. The Tumu Enua contested four seats but only affected the outcome in one seat (in Atiu) where it split the vote significantly.
Of the other seven Independents, four attracted enough votes to affect the outcome.
The marginal seats with the majority figures in brackets were; Akaoa (30), Titikaveka (6), Matavera (21), Teenui-Mapumai (Atiu) (12), Tengatangi-Areora-Ngatiarua (Atiu) (6), Mitiaro (7), Rakahanga (10), Manihiki (4), Pukapuka (10), Penrhyn (9).
Now to the 2006 snap election. The Demos are already one up because Rasmussen is standing unopposed in Penrhyn.
As to which seats could be considered “critical” and instrumental in deciding the next government, each party has its own views.
CIP LIST
The CIP list as critical:
* Ngatangiia where they say recent analysis shows CIP’s Willie Kauvai slightly ahead of Demos Dr Maoate and Nikao where Tangee is making gains against the Demos Aunty Mau.
* Also critical for the CIP are Oneroa (Demo) (Mangaia), Mauke (Demo) and Mitiaro (Demo).
* The CIP are confident of taking Pukapuka off the Demos Wuatai and retaining Manihiki.
* They are also confident of taking all three seats in Aitutaki and both seats in Atiu.
* Titikaveka and Ruaau are not critical for them say the CIP as they’re confident of retaining those seats.
DEMOS LIST
A spokesperson for the Demos says they are making a huge effort to win Manihiki from the CIP. That seat is regarded as critical.
The Demos especially want to recapture the traditionally Demo seats of Ruaau and Titikaveka. The spokesperson says the seat of Ruaau is critical for the Demos as it is an “indicator” of how things will pan out.
Ruaau has always had a very strong Demo base and how things go in Ruaau, generally indicates what the trend will be for the Demos.
If the Demos win Ruaau off the CIP then it generally follows they will go on to win Titikaveka another strong Demo area.
Outer Islands seats the Demos say will be critical are those in Aitutaki (3-two Demo, one CIP) and Atiu 2-One Demo, one CIP).
TIMES LIST
With no effective Independent to split the vote this time, the Times predicts a close call in Tupapa where CIP’s Faireka, has a tough competitor in the Demos Pastor John Tangi. In 2004, Faireka won polling 353 votes to Tangi’s 290. However, the Independent Ponga, polled 165 and 112 people did not vote.
For its part, the Times predicts a close call in the Rarotonga seats of Ruaau, Titikaveka, and Tupapa and in the outer islands, close calls in Amuri-Ureia (Aitutaki), Tengatangi-Areora-Ngatiarua (Atiu), Mitiaro and Pukapuka.

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